Pilot Evaluation of a New Urine Progesterone Test to Confirm Ovulation in Women Using a Fertility Monitor
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Progesterone rises approximately 24-36 hours after ovulation. Past studies using ultrasound-confirmed ovulation have shown that three consecutive tests with a threshold of 5 µg/mL of urine progesterone (pregnanediol-3-glucuronide, PDG), taken after the luteinizing hormone (LH) surge, confirmed ovulation with 100% specificity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to a evaluate a new urine PDG self-test to retrospectively confirm ovulation in women who were monitoring ovulation using a hormonal fertility monitor. Methods: Thirteen women of reproductive age were recruited to test urine PDG while using their home hormonal fertility monitor. The monitor measured the rise in estrogen (estrone-3-glucuronide, E3G) and LH to estimate the fertile phase of the menstrual cycle. The women used an online menstrual cycle charting system to track E3G, LH and PDG levels for four menstrual cycles. Results: The participants (Mean age 33.6) produced 34 menstrual cycles of data (Mean length 28.4 days), 17 of which used a PDG test with a threshold of 7 µg/mL and 17 with a threshold of 5 µg/mL. In the cycles that used the 7µg/mL test strips, 59% had a positive confirmation of ovulation, and with the 5 µg/mL test strips, 82% of them had a positive confirmation of ovulation. Conclusion: The 5 µg/mL PDG test confirmed ovulation in 82% of cycles and could assist women in the evaluation of the luteal progesterone rise of their menstrual cycle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".