Changes in the Thickness and Circulation of Multiyear Ice in the Beaufort Gyre Determined From Pseudo‐Lagrangian Methods from 2003–2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We combine Eulerian ice draft observations from moored ice‐profiling sonars with buoy‐ and satellite‐derived ice drift data to obtain Lagrangian observations of changes in the thickness distribution of sea ice circulating the Beaufort Sea. We examine repeat measurements of ice draft by identifying events where buoys or pseudobuoys made repeat overpasses within 30 km of ice‐profiling sonar‐equipped Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project moorings. Comparison of ice draft distributions from each overpass indicates that summertime melt rates are related to drift track, with more melt occurring in the southern Beaufort Sea than to the north. Additionally, we find that ice surviving summer in the Beaufort Sea since 2007 is similar in thickness to surrounding first‐year sea ice by the end of the following winter. These findings are supported by continuous ice thickness data from ice mass balance buoys. By examining “plumes” of pseudobuoys originating at each mooring location, we identify anomalous northward transport of ice in the southern Beaufort Sea in 2007 that likely contributed to the record‐breaking reduction in sea ice extent that year. We also find that repeat overpasses have been much rarer since 2007, due to reduced summertime sea ice extent in the Beaufort Gyre and possible changes in ice drift patterns. These changes contribute to diminished replenishment of multiyear sea ice volume in the Arctic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".