Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 is masking PCV13-mediated herd immunity in Canadian adults hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia: A study from the Serious Outcomes Surveillance (SOS) Network of the Canadian immunization research Network (CIRN)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was recently shown to be effective against PCV13-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal community acquired pneumonia (CAP Spn ) in healthy adults aged ≥65 years, prompting many countries to re-assess adult immunization. In Canada, the potential benefits of adult PCV13 immunization were unclear given anticipated herd immunity from PCV13 childhood immunization introduced since 2010. This study describes the serotype distribution and clinical outcomes of Canadian adults aged ≥16 years, who were hospitalized with CAP Spn and IPD from 2010 to 2015. Methods Active surveillance for CAP and IPD was performed in adult hospitals across five Canadian provinces. IPD was identified when Streptococcus pneumoniae was isolated from sterile sites. Bacteremic and non-bacteremic CAP Spn were identified using blood culture, and sputum culture or PCV13-specific urine antigen detection (UAD PCV13 ), respectively. Serotype was assigned using Quellung reaction, PCR, or UAD PCV13 . Results Of 6687 CAP cases where a test was performed, S. pneumoniae positivity decreased from 15.9% in 2011 to 8.8% in 2014, but increased to 12.9% in 2015. CAP Spn attributed to PCV13 serotypes followed a similar trend, dropping from 8.3% in 2010 to 4.6% in 2014, but increasing to 6.3% in 2015. The decline was primarily attributed to serotypes 7F and 19A, and the proportional increase to serotype 3. Similar trends were noted for bacteremic and non-bacteremic CAP Spn . Serious outcomes such as 30-day mortality, intensive care unit admission, and requirement for mechanical ventilation were prominent in CAP Spn and IPD cases, but remained unchanged over the study years. Conclusion Herd immunity afforded primarily by serotypes 7F and 19A appears to be partly masked by a concomitant proportional increase of serotype 3. Despite evidence of herd immunity, these PCV13 serotypes remain persistent in Canadian adults hospitalized with CAP Spn , and represent between 5 and 10% of all CAP in this patient population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".