Systematic Uncertainties in the Analysis of the Reactor Neutrino Anomaly
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examine uncertainties in the analysis of the reactor neutrino anomaly, wherein it is suggested that only about 94% of the emitted antineutrino flux was detected in short baseline experiments. We find that the form of the corrections that lead to the anomaly are very uncertain for the 30% of the flux that arises from forbidden decays. This uncertainty was estimated in four ways, is larger than the size of the anomaly, and is unlikely to be reduced without accurate direct measurements of the antineutrino flux. Given the present lack of detailed knowledge of the structure of the forbidden transitions, it is not possible to convert the measured aggregate fission beta spectra to antineutrino spectra to the accuracy needed to infer an anomaly. Neutrino physics conclusions based on the original anomaly need to be revisited, as do oscillation analyses that assumed that the antineutrino flux is known to better than approximately 4%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".