BANGS AND METEORS FROM THE QUIET COMET 15P/FINLAY
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Jupiter-family comet 15P/Finlay has been reportedly quiet in activity for over a century but has harbored two outbursts during its 2014/2015 perihelion passage. Here we present an analysis of these two outbursts using a set of cometary observations. The outbursts took place between 2014 December 15.4–16.0 UT and 2015 January 15.5–16.0 UT as constrained by ground-based and spacecraft observations. We find a characteristic ejection speed of V 0 = 300–650 m s−1 for the ejecta of the first outburst and V 0 = 550–750 m s−1 for that of the second outburst using a Monte Carlo dust model. The mass of the ejecta is calculated to be M d = (2–3) × 105 kg for the first outburst and M d = (4–5) × 105 kg for the second outburst, which corresponds to less than 10−7 of the nucleus mass. The specific energy of the two outbursts is found to be (0.3–2) × 105 J kg−1. We also revisit the long-standing puzzle of the nondetection of the hypothetical Finlayid meteor shower by performing a cued search using the 13 yr data from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar, which does not reveal any positives. Earth will pass the 2014/2015 outburst ejecta between 2021 October 6 at 22 hr UT and October 7 at 1 hr UT, with a chance for some significant meteor activity in the radio range, which may provide further clues to the Finlayid puzzle. A southerly radiant in the constellation of Ara will favor the observers in the southern tip of Africa.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".