BANGS AND METEORS FROM THE QUIET COMET 15P/FINLAY
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Jupiter-family comet 15P/Finlay has been reportedly quiet in activity for over a century but has harbored two outbursts during its 2014/2015 perihelion passage. Here we present an analysis of these two outbursts using a set of cometary observations. The outbursts took place between 2014 December 15.4–16.0 UT and 2015 January 15.5–16.0 UT as constrained by ground-based and spacecraft observations. We find a characteristic ejection speed of V 0 = 300–650 m s −1 for the ejecta of the first outburst and V 0 = 550–750 m s −1 for that of the second outburst using a Monte Carlo dust model. The mass of the ejecta is calculated to be M d = (2–3) × 10 5 kg for the first outburst and M d = (4–5) × 10 5 kg for the second outburst, which corresponds to less than 10 −7 of the nucleus mass. The specific energy of the two outbursts is found to be (0.3–2) × 10 5 J kg −1 . We also revisit the long-standing puzzle of the nondetection of the hypothetical Finlayid meteor shower by performing a cued search using the 13 yr data from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar, which does not reveal any positives. Earth will pass the 2014/2015 outburst ejecta between 2021 October 6 at 22 hr UT and October 7 at 1 hr UT, with a chance for some significant meteor activity in the radio range, which may provide further clues to the Finlayid puzzle. A southerly radiant in the constellation of Ara will favor the observers in the southern tip of Africa.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".