Predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc scores regarding the risk of stroke and all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (CONSORT compliant)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of fatal complications (e.g., stroke). This investigation was performed as an observational retrospective cohort study includes 137 patients (age 61 ± 15; 34.3% women) with a primary diagnosis of AF (paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent). METHODS: We collected information about the drug therapy, comorbidities and survival of AF patients and determined their congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or TIA or thromboembolism, vascular disease, age, sex category (CHA2DS2-VASc) scores. Statistical analysis identified patients with high CHA2DS2-VASc scores and defined the predictive value of individual parameters, or their combination, with regards to the outcomes of stroke and mortality. RESULTS: CHA2DS2-VASc scores identified 43.8% of the patients as low to intermediate risk (score 0-1) and 56.2% of the patients as high risk (score ≥2). Increasing CHA2DS2-VASc scores were not only accompanied by an increase in the incidence of stroke (Ptrend < .001) but also by an increase in the 3 to 5 years mortality (P = .005). Comparison of anticoagulation and anti-aggregation treatment between the 3 groups of AF did not show any significant statistical difference. Highly significant predictors of death were the CHA2DS2-VASc score (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.10-2.67, P < .017) as well as other risk factors not included in the CHA2DS2-VASc score such as valvular heart disease (OR 5.04, 95% CI 1.10-23.10, P = .037), hyperlipidemia (OR 4.82, 95% CI 1.03-22.63, P = .046) and chronic renal failure (OR 14.21, 95% CI 2.41-83.91, P = .003). The type of AF type did not affect survival (P = .158) nor the incidence of stroke (P = .466). Patients with paroxysmal AF were linked to significantly lower frequencies of ischemic heart disease (P < .0001), vascular disease (P = .002), diabetes mellitus (P = .047), valvular heart disease (P = .03) and heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction (P = .015). CONCLUSION: The CHA2DS2-VASc score correctly predicted the patients at high-risk for 3 to 5 years mortality and confirmed its significant predictive value in the patients with AF.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".