Gradually increasing forest fire activity during the Holocene in the northern Ural region (Komi Republic, Russia)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In many boreal regions of Russia the past natural variability of forest fire activity remains largely undocumented, preventing accurate assessment of the impact of current climate warming on forest ecosystem dynamics. This study aims to reconstruct the Holocene fire history of the northern Ural mountain foothills, in the Komi Republic, based on analyses of charcoal particles from peatland deposits and coupled with dendrochronological investigations. The results show that there was a gradual increase in forest fire activity during the past 11,000 years. Between 11,000 and 5100 cal. yr BP, the mean fire return interval (FRI) oscillated between 600 and 200 years. During this period, regional data showed that cold temperature, humid climatic conditions, combined with steppe vegetation between 11,000–9000 cal. BP, and then the development of spruce-dominated forest between 9300 and 4600 cal. yr BP, were less conducive to fires. After 5100 cal. yr BP, a gradual increase in drought conditions through reduced precipitations, associated with the establishment of a Scots pine forest favored fire frequency, with a mean FRI under 200 years (range, 200–40 years). Nowadays (since CE 1500), human activity induces an unprecedented fire activity with a mean FRI below 100 years (range, 100–40 years).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".