Scoring algorithms for a computer-based cognitive screening tool: An illustrative example of overfitting machine learning approaches and the impact on estimates of classification accuracy.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Computerized cognitive screening tools, such as the self-administered Computerized Assessment of Memory Cognitive Impairment (CAMCI), require little training and ensure standardized administration and could be an ideal test for primary care settings. We conducted a secondary analysis of a data set including 887 older adults (M age = 72.7 years, SD = 7.1 years; 32.1% male; M years education = 13.4, SD = 2.7 years) with CAMCI scores and independent diagnoses of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). A study by the CAMCI developers used a portion of this data set with a machine learning decision tree model and suggested that the CAMCI had high classification accuracy for MCI (sensitivity = 0.86, specificity = 0.94). We found similar support for accuracy (sensitivity = 0.94, specificity = 0.94) by overfitting a decision tree model, but we found evidence of lower accuracy in a cross-validation sample (sensitivity = 0.62, specificity = 0.66). A logistic regression model, however, discriminated modestly in both training (sensitivity = 0.72, specificity = 0.80) and cross-validation data sets (sensitivity = 0.69, specificity = 0.74). Evidence for strong accuracy when overfitting a decision tree model and substantially reduced accuracy in cross-validation samples was replicated across 500 bootstrapped samples. In contrast, the evidence for accuracy of the logistic regression model was similar in the training and cross-validation samples. The logistic regression model produced accuracy estimates consistent with other published CAMCI studies, suggesting evidence for classification accuracy of the CAMCI for MCI is likely modest. This case study illustrates the general need for cross-validation and careful evaluation of the generalizability of machine learning models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.126 | 0.384 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".