Demographic Expansion and Contraction in a Neotropical Fish during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Demographic changes during the late Pleistocene-Holocene left signatures in the DNA of contemporary populations. These signatures reveal demographic phenomena like the increase or decrease in effective population size. In this paper we searched for signatures of demographic change in the DNA of the Neotropical freshwater fish Poecilia vivipara. Also, we investigated whether demographic changes are correlated with palaeoclimatic events of the late Pleistocene-Holocene, in particular, if changes in effective population size are correlated with expansion and contraction of available habitats, induced by global ice-volume changes and sea-level fluctuations. We used Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) analysis with sequences from the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b to estimate the ancestral demography of the Neotropical freshwater fish P. vivipara. To test the assumptions of neutrality and absence of population structure we used Tajima’s D and Spatial Analysis of Molecular Variance (SAMOVA), respectively. Effective population size of P. vivipara remained stable until 75,000 years ago, increased by 10-fold reaching a maximum at approximately 25,000 years ago, then suddenly declined at the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary. Variation in effective population size in P. vivipara correlates with expansion and contraction of habitats induced by sea-level fluctuations, caused by the advance and retreat of ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it