Changing incidence of reported viral hepatitis in China from 2004 to 2016: an observational study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: China's national hepatitis burden is high. This study aims to provide a detailed national-level description of the reported incidence of viral hepatitis in China during 2004-2016. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Data were obtained from China's National Notifiable Disease Reporting System, and changing trends were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis. PARTICIPANTS: In this system, 16 927 233 reported viral hepatitis cases occurring during 2004-2016 were identified. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years and changing trends were calculated. RESULTS: There were 16 927 233 new cases of viral hepatitis reported in China from 2004 to 2016. Hepatitis B (HBV) (n=13 543 137, 80.00%) and hepatitis C (HCV) (n=1 844 882, 10.90%) accounted for >90% of the cases. The overall annual percent change (APC) in reported cases of viral hepatitis and HBV were 0.3%(95% CI -2.0 to 0.8, p=0.6) and -0.2% (95% CI -1.6 to 1.2, p=0.8), respectively, showing a stable trend. HBV rates were highest in the 20-29 year old age group and lowest in younger individuals, likely resulting from the universal HBV vaccination. The reported incidence of HCV and hepatitis E (HEV) showed increasing trends; the APCs were 14.5% (95% CI 13.1 to 15.9, p<0.05) and 4.7% (95% CI 2.8 to 6.7, p<0.05), respectively. The hepatitis A (HAV) reporting incidence decreased, and the APC was -13.1% (95% CI -15.1 to -11.0, p<0.05). There were marked differences in the reporting of hepatitis among provinces. CONCLUSIONS: HBV continues to constitute the majority of viral hepatitis cases in China. Over the entire study period, the HBV reporting incidence was stable, the HCV and HEV incidence increased and the HAV incidence decreased. There were significant interprovincial disparities in the burden of viral hepatitis, with higher rates in economically less-developed areas. Vaccination is important for viral hepatitis prevention and control.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".