The Methane Diurnal Variation and Microseepage Flux at Gale Crater, Mars as Constrained by the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter and Curiosity Observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The upper bound of 50 parts per trillion by volume for Mars methane above 5 km established by the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter, substantially lower than the 410 parts per trillion by volume average measured overnight by the Curiosity Rover, places a strong constraint on the daytime methane flux at the Gale crater. We propose that these measurements may be largely reconciled by the inhibition of mixing near the surface overnight, whereby methane emitted from the subsurface accumulates within meters of the surface before being mixed below detection limits at dawn. A model of this scenario allows the first precise calculation of microseepage fluxes at Gale to be derived, consistent with a constant 1.5 × 10 −10 kg·m −2 ·sol −1 (5.4 × 10 −5 tonnes·km −2 ·year −1 ) source at depth. Under this scenario, only 2.7 × 10 4 km 2 of Mars's surface may be emitting methane, unless a fast destruction mechanism exists.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".