Nighttime Magnetic Perturbation Events Observed in Arctic Canada: 1. Survey and Statistical Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with large, isolated magnetic perturbations with amplitudes |Δ B | of hundreds of nanotesla and 5‐ to 10‐min periods can induce bursts of geomagnetically induced currents that can harm technological systems. This paper presents statistical summaries of the characteristics of nightside magnetic perturbation events observed in Eastern Arctic Canada from 2014 through 2017 using data from stations that are part of four magnetometer arrays: MACCS, AUTUMNX, CANMOS, and CARISMA, covering a range of magnetic latitudes from 68 to 78°. Most but not all of the magnetic perturbation events were associated with substorms: roughly two thirds occurred between 5 and 30 min after onset. The association of intense nighttime magnetic perturbation events with magnetic storms was significantly reduced at latitudes above 73°, presumably above the nominal auroral oval. A superposed epoch study of 21 strong events at Cape Dorset showed that the largest |d B /d t | values appeared within an ~275‐km radius that was associated with a region of shear between upward and downward field‐aligned currents. The statistical distributions of impulse amplitudes of both |Δ B | and |d B /d t | fit well the log‐normal distribution at all stations. The |Δ B | distributions are similar over the magnetic latitude range studied, but the kurtosis and skewness of the |d B /d t | distributions show a slight increase with latitude. Knowledge of the statistical characteristics of these events has enabled us to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme impulsive disturbances using the approximation of a log‐normal distribution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".