Long-lead ENSO control of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the East Asian-western North Pacific region
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The boreal summer 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the East Asian-western North Pacific (EAWNP) region strongly influences persistent heavy rainfall in East Asia and tropical cyclone activities in the tropical western Pacific. In this study, we show that there exists a significant interannual south-north shift of the EAWNP-ISO activity between the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean—Maritime continent region and the subtropical South China Sea—western Pacific. This is reflected by the year-to-year changes in the occurrence frequency of individual ISO phases that correspond to different latitudinal locations of the convection anomaly. This interannual shift is largely controlled by the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter and spring. Following an El Niño event, the ISO convective activity tends to occur in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean—Maritime continents, whereas after a La Niña, frequent ISO-related precipitation occurs in the region of south China and the subtropical South China Sea—western Pacific. This result implies long-lead predictability for the occurrence of the summertime EAWNP-ISO activity and its associated weather.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".