Rate and success of study replication in ecology and evolution
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent replication crisis has caused several scientific disciplines to self-reflect on the frequency with which they replicate previously published studies and to assess their success in such endeavours. The rate of replication, however, has yet to be assessed for ecology and evolution. Here, I survey the open-access ecology and evolution literature to determine how often ecologists and evolutionary biologists replicate, or at least claim to replicate, previously published studies. I found that approximately 0.023% of ecology and evolution studies are described by their authors as replications. Two of the 11 original-replication study pairs provided sufficient statistical detail for three effects so as to permit a formal analysis of replication success. Replicating authors correctly concluded that they replicated an original effect in two cases; in the third case, my analysis suggests that the finding by the replicating authors was consistent with the original finding, contrary the conclusion of "replication failure" by the authors.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.054 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it