Decomposing the effects of physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness on mortality
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Characterizing the effects of physical activity (PA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) on mortality is challenging because the causal relationship between PA, CRF, and other cardiovascular risk factors is unclear. To better understand the effects of PA and CRF on mortality, we re-analyzed data from 42,373 participants in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) using a modified version of VanderWeele's four-way causal effect decomposition method. The method was applied to decompose the causal effects of PA and CRF on median time to death into parts reflecting mediation, interaction, mediated interaction, and neither interaction nor mediation. We found that 67% of the effect of PA on mortality was mediated by CRF, while the effect of CRF was not significantly mediated by PA. The effects of both PA and CRF were mediated to a small extent by hypertension and diabetes. There were no meaningful interactions. Our findings strengthen the evidence that the benefit on mortality from PA is largely mediated by its effect on CRF, and support efforts to increase longevity by encouraging PA.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it