Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Previous studies have provided observational evidence for a correlation between certain phases of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at a lag of about 10 days. Such a relation implies that the tropical convection of the MJO may provide sources of skill for subseasonal predictions in the extratropical regions. In this study, we show that the MJO‐NAO connection is influenced by the phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). During the westerly phase of QBO (WQBO), a stronger and longer lasting MJO‐NAO teleconnection is observed. About 10 days after the MJO phase 3 (7), which corresponds to enhanced (suppressed) diabatic heating anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean and reduced (enhanced) convection in the western Pacific, a positive (negative) NAO tends to occur. On the other hand, under the easterly phase of QBO (EQBO), the MJO‐NAO teleconnection is also observed, but weaker and with less statistical significance. The QBO possibly influences the MJO‐related teleconnection by modulating the extratropical basic state. During WQBO years, there is subtropical anomalous westerly wind in the North Pacific, and as a result, the enhanced subtropical westerly jet provides a favorable environment for the MJO‐induced extratropical Rossby wave to propagate. The anomalous high‐latitude North Atlantic westerly is also favorable for troposphere‐stratosphere coupling and for the NAO to develop.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".