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Assessment of Threats Related to Maritime Crimes in the Arctic

2019· article· en· W2972860332 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Andrey Todorov

Bibliographic record

VenueWorld Economy and International Relations · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArctic and Russian Policy Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsArcticContext (archaeology)The arcticPolitical sciencePoliticsGeographyTourismBusinessEnvironmental planningLawOceanography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Transnational crimes committed in the maritime domain pose a real threat to international security today. Climate change and opening of shipping routes in the Arctic actualize the need to assess this type of security threats for the polar region. While the official Arctic strategies of the five coastal states – Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and the USA, – in general, acknowledge threats to maritime security stemming from nonstate organized criminal actors, there is neither system-based understanding of these threats, differentiated approach to assessing specific types of potential maritime criminal activities, nor developing practical measures aimed at their prevention and suppression. Basing on the analysis of different maritime crimes, it seems reasonable to ascertain a generally low probability of their large-scale emergence in the Arctic in the nearest future. Main reasons for that are severe climate conditions, as well as economic and political stability of the region. However, the apparent and anticipated increase of Arctic shipping and development of new types of economic activities, such as tourism, can lead to increased risks related to transnational maritime criminal activity in the Arctic. In this regard, to date, the most real threat is posed by such crimes as terroristic attacks on cruise ships, illegal transportation of drugs and weapons using the main Arctic marine routes, illegal migration. It is obvious that the Arctic coastal states lack sufficient resources to efficiently address the threats related to transnational maritime crimes. In this context, special focus should be made on enhancing regional interstate cooperation in the field. Taking into account that the only regional mechanism responsible for enhancing coordination of national bodies regarding security-related issues is the Arctic Coast Guard Forum, it would be reasonable to endow this institution with the competence to develop joint measures for the suppression of potential maritime criminal activities in the Arctic. This could be made through development of a pan-Arctic legally binding agreement that would specify practical measures stipulated by other international agreements in the field of suppressing certain types of maritime crimes. 

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.881
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.025
GPT teacher head0.352
Teacher spread0.327 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreOther

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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