SOCIAL CHANGES IN IMPRESSIONABLE YEARS AND ADULT POLITICAL ATTITUDES: EVIDENCE FROM JEWISH EXPULSIONS IN NAZI GERMANY
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study provides evidence that individuals who grew up during the 1930's Jewish expulsions are less likely to show interest and participate in politics. The estimates imply that, at the mean, individuals in their impressionable ages at the time of the expulsions are about 13% less likely to be interested in politics and 26% less likely to participate in politics. These results are not found for individuals who were older at the time of the expulsions nor for those growing up during world War (WWII). Results are robust to fixed region and birth‐year characteristics, various definitions of impressionable ages, and composition bias induced by differential migration and mortality rates across regions and cohorts. The estimates are also not driven by other regional differences in 1930's political participation, party support, Catholic share, exposure and destruction during WWII, urbanization, and other regional characteristics. We provide evidence that the adverse effects on political attitudes we find are explained by a model of political participation emphasizing the role of civic skills and socioeconomic status acquired at younger ages. Exposure to the expulsions when young is associated with lower adult volunteerism, trust, church attendance, and socioeconomic status. (JELO12, D72, D74, J15)
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".