Seasonality shapes the amplitude of vole population dynamics rather than generalist predators
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seasonality has been suggested as a necessary factor for the initiation of vole population cycles in Fennoscandia. This has been well described for a latitudinal gradient. Here, we used an elevational gradient as a proxy for winter length to study how the length of the winter season correlates with the amplitude of bank vole Myodes glareolus population cycles. In addition, we studied whether the small mammalian generalist predator community present locally could explain any elevational effects. We estimated the population size of 30 local bank vole populations. We found a strong effect of elevation on the amplitude of the population cycle with local populations at around 800 m elevation having 1.5 times greater densities than populations in the valley (ca 300 m elevation). A univariate model with elevation as predictor for amplitude was twice as likely to be the best model than models including generalist predators. Our results fit well with the theories of a positive effect of winter length on the amplitude of vole population cycles in Fennoscandia, irrespective of whether the seasonal effect corresponds to a latitudinal or elevational gradient. The mechanisms may be limited resources during winter rather than generalist predators.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".