Changes in Consumption of Sugary Beverages and Artificially Sweetened Beverages and Subsequent Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Results From Three Large Prospective U.S. Cohorts of Women and Men
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the associations of long-term changes in consumption of sugary beverages (including sugar-sweetened beverages and 100% fruit juices) and artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) with subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We followed up 76,531 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1986-2012), 81,597 women in the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2013), and 34,224 men in the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study (1986-2012). Changes in beverage consumption (in 8-ounce servings/day) were calculated from food frequency questionnaires administered every 4 years. Multivariable Cox proportional regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios for diabetes associated with changes in beverage consumption. Results of the three cohorts were pooled using an inverse variance-weighted, fixed-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: During 2,783,210 person-years of follow-up, we documented 11,906 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. After adjustment for BMI and initial and changes in diet and lifestyle covariates, increasing total sugary beverage intake (including both sugar-sweetened beverages and 100% fruit juices) by >0.50 serving/day over a 4-year period was associated with a 16% (95% CI 1%, 34%) higher diabetes risk in the subsequent 4 years. Increasing ASB consumption by >0.50 serving/day was associated with 18% (2%, 36%) higher diabetes risk. Replacing one daily serving of sugary beverage with water, coffee, or tea, but not ASB, was associated with a 2-10% lower diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing consumption of sugary beverages or ASBs was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, albeit the latter association may be affected by reverse causation and surveillance bias.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it