Monetary Policy and Expectations: Effects on the Output Level, an Empirical Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The common knowledge of macroeconomic theory suggests that in the long-run the Phillips curve is vertical and there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment rate. The expectations-augmented Phillips curve specification implies that in the long-run, on average, whenever inflation expectations are consistent with the level of inflation, the output level should be equal to its potential. However, considering surveys on expected inflation rates in Sweden, Canada and New Zealand, it emerges that agents are not always able to correctly predict future inflation. As consequence of this process, it is possible to hypothesise that GDP may deviate from its potential level. In light of that, this work has examined how unexpected inflation and output gap are related through the process of wage bargaining. To assess this phenomenon it has been considered the cases of Sweden, where the Riksbank (the Swedish central bank) has undershot the target for a long period of time, Canada and New Zealand, which have both maintained the inflation on the announced target (As for New Zealand, in the target range). After a statistical assessment, the findings are the following, in the Swedish case exists a trade-off between rationality of expectations and credibility of the monetary policy. On the other hand, according to the Canadian experience, rationality and credibility do not contradict each other. Finally, no relevant findings have emerged after the analysis of the New Zealander case.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.026 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".