Trend of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Jordan From 2010 to 2016: Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is endemic in the Middle East, with countries such as Syria reporting high incidence rates. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the trends in the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Jordan from 2010 to 2016. METHODS: This retrospective study included all cases of CL that had been reported to the Leishmaniasis Surveillance System in the Department of Communicable Diseases at the Jordan Ministry of Health during the period from 2010 to 2016. A total of 1243 cases were reported and met the case definition. RESULTS: A total of 1243 cases (60.65% [754/1243] males and 39.34% [489/1243] females) were diagnosed during the study period. Of this sample, 233 patients (19.13%) were aged <5 years old, 451 (37.03%) were aged between 5-14 years old, 190 (15.60%) were aged between 15-24 years old, and 344 (28.24%) were aged ≥25 years old. Of those, 646 (51.97%) were Jordanians and 559 (44.97%) were Syrians. The average annual incidence rate of 1.70 per 100,000 people between 2010 and 2013 increased to 3.00 per 100,000 people in the years 2014 to 2016. There was no difference in incidence rates between Jordanians and Syrian refugees between 2010 and 2012. After 2012, the incidence rate increased significantly among Syrian refugees from 1.20 per 100,000 people in 2012 to 11.80 per 100,000 people in 2016. On the contrary, the incidence rate did not change significantly among Jordanians. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of leishmaniasis in Jordan has increased in the last three years because of the influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan. A massive effort toward reservoir and vector control, along with actively pursuing diagnosis in endemic foci, will be helpful. Proper and studious reporting of cases is also a necessity for the eradication of this disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".