Patterns in Aggregated Human Conflict Behaviour: Spectral analyses reveal 7- and 29-day periodicities reflecting weekly and monthly lunar cycles
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous works demonstrated that human creative output fluctuates in periods of 500-years, and more importantly that these periods of creative output maxima occurred simultaneous with increased solar activity. Indeed, early works by Chizhevskiy pointed to the correlation between solar-and-lunar geophysical variables and human behaviour. Interestingly, Persinger, and St. Pierre demonstrated increased aggression in rats during increased geophysical activity. Using these studies as a foundation, we explored the CDB90 Battle Dataset to find a pattern or potential periodicity in large scale human aggressive behaviour – war – specifically within the duration of battles. Using the mean duration of battles for various wars from 1600 to 1950 revealed a 7-day periodicity in military conflicts during the 20th Century, with subharmonics at 14, 22, and 29-days. The existence of the 7-day period in large-scale aggregate behaviour may suggest the reflection of biological cycles also of 7-days, whose original entrainment is likely due to solar and lunar influences. Such entrainment may be why attempts to organize human societies with cycles other than 7-days become superseded by circaseptan systems as they reflect a natural, biological pattern.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it