Risk factors associated with progression to intestinal complications of Crohn disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Crohn disease is a chronic bowel disease that causes serious complications. Prevalence of Crohn disease is increasing. Studies have shown that the behavior of the disease is not stable and severe complications secondary to behavior change over time have been shown. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic risk factors associated with phenotypic change in Crohn disease in a Turkish patient cohort. METHODS: Patients followed up from March 1986 to August 2011 were evaluated for demographic and clinical characteristics to determine possible risk factors and initial clinical phenotype of the disease based on the Montreal classification. The cumulative probabilities of developing stricturing or penetrating intestinal complications were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models were used to assess associations between baseline clinical characteristics and intestinal complications. RESULTS: Three hundred and thirty patients (mean age, 30.6 ± 11.1 years; 148 female) were included in the study. Mean follow-up duration was 7.4 ± 5.3 years (range: 1.0-25.0 years). At baseline 273 patients had inflammatory-type disease, 57 patients experienced stricturing/penetrating intestinal complications before or at the time of diagnosis. The cumulative probability of developing complicated disease was 37.4% at 5 years, 54.3% at 10 years, 78.8% at 25 years. Independent predictors associated with progression to intestinal complications were current smoking, perianal disease, extra-intestinal manifestations, and location of disease. CONCLUSIONS: Location of disease is the most powerful indicator for the development of stenosis and penetrating complications in inflammatory-type disease. Patients with ileal involvement should be considered for more aggressive immunosuppressive therapy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".