2706. Indirect Effects of Infant 13-valent Conjugate Pneumococcal Vaccination Program on Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Adults in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Many jurisdictions report a significant reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in adults following implementation of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, 7-valent (PCV7) and 13-valent (PCV13) in childhood immunization programs. This study evaluates the indirect effect of conjugate vaccines on IPD in British Columbia, Canada over a 14 year period (2002–2015). Methods Using provincial IPD laboratory surveillance data, we calculated the annual incidence following implementation of PCV7 (September 2004), and PCV13 (September 2010) in adults 18 years of age and older. We also compared incidence rate ratios (IRR) against pre-PCV13 (2004–2010) and pre-PCV7 (2002–2003) baselines for overall and age-specific IPD rates using Poisson regression. Results A total of 3793 cases were reported over the 14 year period. The overall annual incidence increased from 4.32 cases per 100,000 population in 2002 to 8.61 cases per 100,000 population in 2015. Overall, IPD has increased by 80% (IRR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.59–2.04) compared with baseline, especially in adults ≥ 85 years of age (PCV13 vs baseline: IRR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.25–03.05). This increase was the highest after introduction of PCV7 (IRR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.65–2.11); the incremental change after introduction of PCV13 was non-significant (IRR 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90–1.03). While PCV7 type IPD plummeted by 76% (IRR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.18–0.31) since introduction of PCV7 compared with baseline, a modest decline in PCV13 type IPD of 20% was seen (IRR 0.80; 95% CI: 0.71–0.89) since introduction of PCV13. Conclusion Although PCV7-type IPD has decreased substantially, only a modest reduction in IPD from the additional 6 serotypes in the PCV13 vaccine was observed. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".