2705. Serotype Replacement Following Childhood Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination Programs in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines have substantially reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD); however, the impact of the vaccine on non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) remains unclear. We evaluated the effect of PCV13 use in British Columbia, Canada. Methods The annual incidence following implementation of PCV7 (September 2004), and PCV13 (September 2010) was calculated using provincial laboratory surveillance data. We also compared incidence rate ratios (IRR) against pre-PCV13 (2004–10) and pre-PCV7 (2002–03) baselines using Poisson regression for non-conjugate vaccine type IPD. Results A total of 4,490 cases were reported over the 14 year period. The overall annual incidence increased from 5.73 cases per 100,000 population in 2002 to 7.90 cases per 100,000 population in 2015. Compared with baseline, PCV7 reduced VT-IPD (IRR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.42–0.56), but the additional 6 serotypes in the PCV13 vaccine caused 214% increase in IPD (IRR: 2.65; 95% CI: 2.12–3.39). The majority of this increase is related to an increase in NVT disease (IRR: 3.17; 95% CI: 2.62–3.87) such as 23B, 23A, 9N, 20, 33F, 15C, 17F and 6C. IPD from PCV13 vaccine serotypes 19A and 7F which emerged after PCV7 continue to be high. Conclusion The introduction of PCV13 has a modest impact on IPD rates, due to inadequate control of serotypes 19A and 7F, and, of concern, IPD rates continue to escalate due to serotype replacement by non-vaccine serotypes. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".