P5664Trends in incidence and mortality from atrial fibrillation across europe, 1990 - 2017
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common arrhythmias found in the general population, carrying risk of associated cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, and presenting a significant global health burden. Better understanding of its epidemiology may have public health implications. Purpose To describe trends in AF incidence and mortality throughout Europe from 1990 to 2017. Methods We performed a temporal analysis of data deposited in the Global Burden of Disease Study Database for countries across the European Union. We extracted age-standardised incidence and age-standardised death rates from the database and graphically inspected the data, as well as summarised the changes in trends using percentage change from the beginning of the observation period (1990) to the end of the observation period (2017). Results A total of 24 member states were included. In 1990, the overall median male incidence and mortality from AF were 81.4 cases per 100,000 and 5.0 deaths per 100,000 respectively. The corresponding female median incidence and mortality in 1990 were 66.3 cases per 100,000 and 7.3 deaths per 100,000 respectively. Mortality rates in 2017 were highest in Sweden and Germany. There was an increasing trend in all countries between 1990 and 2017 for both incidence and mortality. For men, the countries with the greatest percentage increases in incidence were Slovenia (+77%) and Poland (+71%). For women, the greatest increases in AF incidence were in Poland (+58%) and Estonia (+48%). The greatest percentage increases in AF related mortality were, in men, Estonia (+195%) and Sweden (+145%), and, in women, Greece (+151%) and Bulgaria (+147%). Conclusion AF represents a significant health burden in an aging population; general increases in incidence rates may suggest improvement in detection throughout Europe. However, AF associated mortality is more pronounced in Western Europe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".