Direct costs of overdiagnosed asthma: a longitudinal, population-based cohort study in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: A current diagnosis of asthma cannot be objectively confirmed in many patients with physician-diagnosed asthma. Estimates of resource use in overdiagnosed cases of asthma are necessary to measure the burden of overdiagnosis and to evaluate strategies to reduce this burden. We assessed differences in asthma-related healthcare resource use between patients with a confirmed asthma diagnosis and those with asthma ruled out. DESIGN: Population-based, prospective cohort study. SETTING: Participants were recruited through random-digit dialling of both landlines and mobile phones in the province of British Columbia, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: We included 345 individuals ≥12 years of age with a self-reported physician diagnosis of asthma. The diagnosis of asthma was reassessed at the end of 12 months of follow-up using a structured algorithm, which included a bronchodilator reversibility test, methacholine challenge test, and if necessary medication tapering and a second methacholine challenge test. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported annual asthma-related direct healthcare costs (2017 Canadian dollars), outpatient physician visits and medication use from the perspective of the Canadian healthcare system. RESULTS: Asthma was ruled out in 86 (24.9%) participants. The average annual asthma-related direct healthcare costs for participants with confirmed asthma were $C497.9 (SD $C677.9) and for participants with asthma ruled out, $C307.7 (SD $C424.1). In the adjusted analyses, a confirmed diagnosis was associated with higher direct healthcare costs (relative ratio (RR)=1.60, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.22), increased rate of specialist visits (RR=2.41, 95% CI 1.05 to 5.40) and reliever medication use (RR=1.62, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.35), but not primary care physician visits (p=0.10) or controller medication use (p=0.11). CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of individuals with a physician diagnosis of asthma did not have asthma after objective re-evaluation. These participants still consumed a significant amount of asthma-related healthcare resources. The population-level economic burden of asthma overdiagnosis could be substantial.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".