Exchange Rate fluctuations and Financial Performance of Banks: Evidence from Sudan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper aims at investigating whether fluctuations in the exchange rate affect the financial performance of Sudanese banks and detecting the direction of the causal relationship relation between exchange rate and banks’ performance. The study targets a total population of 37 working banks in Sudan and covers the period 2002-2017. The sample comprises of the total set of the population. The paper depends mainly on secondary data, which is collected from consolidated financial reports of commercial banks and other official publications and documents. To test the hypotheses and accuracy and validity of models and data, a set of methods of data analysis are employed, namely, Ordinary Least Squared (OLS), Generalized Least Squares (GLS), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and a number of Diagnostic Tests. The study documents that foreign exchange rate fluctuations, contrary to empirical research findings, have a weak negative effect on Sudanese banks’ financial performance. This may be attributed to the tight economic embargo against Sudan during the period of this study, which isolates the country from the international financial system and adversely affects its ability to engage in cross border activities. Consequently, the banking sector in Sudan is insulated from the effect of international currency movements and its exposure to currency risk that may create unpredictable profits and losses is minimal. In addition, the continuous deterioration of the Sudanese Pound and the limited FDI flows to the country render the investment environment uncompetitive and incapable of attracting foreign funds and the banking system of completely domestic nature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".