Defining frigid winter illuminates its loss across seasonally snow-covered areas of eastern North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Winter is often understudied in ecosystem sciences and viewed as a burden for human systems and infrastructure. However, the importance of winter in regulating ecological processes and shaping human communities has emerged as a topic of great interest, particularly in areas that experience seasonal snow cover. Traditional seasonal definitions may not fully represent below freezing winters and snow accumulation that have historically characterized these areas. Here we: (1) propose the concept of ‘frigid winter’ to address longstanding problems with traditional delineations of winter; and (2) define frigid winter as a period of sustained temperatures below freezing and snow accumulation that together regulate ecological processes and their services. We explore this definition and the changes occurring within it using 100 years of meteorological data from northeastern North America. Trend analysis demonstrates that frigid winters have shortened by ∼3 weeks over the last century, that cold, snowy conditions have become more intermittent, and that the choice of winter delineation (astronomical, meteorological, hibernal, or frigid) influences the apparent rate at which winter conditions disappear.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".