Future Changes in Age Structure and Different Migration Scenarios
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyze migration and demographic changes among the six countries of North America (NA) and the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA, i.e. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador). Together, they comprise a long-standing South-North migration stream, with the United States (US) and Canada being the main destinations for Mexico and the NTCA. Studies that analyze the demographic effects of international migration in origin and destination countries have been limited. In order to fill this gap and explain the implications of recent changes in migration trends and demographic dynamics of the six countries, we study the interrelationship between future changes in the age structure associated with different migration scenarios. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2017 to compare the main demographic indexes and age structure indicators under two prospective scenarios: with and without migration. Current and projected population dynamics suggest convergence in fertility below replacement levels, higher life expectancy, and an overall aging process in the NA-NTCA region. Future migration may slow down the aging process in Canada and the US, have a small effect in Mexico, and speed it up in El Salvador. Taking both the size of the populations and the decrease in young age groups for the main sending countries we have studied, it is unlikely that international migration to the US from Mexico and the NTCA will reach the historic peak observed during the first decade of the 21st century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".