Assessment of the cost of climate change impacts on critical infrastructure in the circumpolar Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Arctic is experiencing pronounced climatic and environmental changes. These changes pose a risk to infrastructure, impacting the accessibility and development of remote locations and adding additional pressures on local and regional budgets. This study estimates the costs of fixed infrastructure affected by climate change impacts in the Arctic region, specifically on the impacts of permafrost thaw. Geotechnical models are forced by climate data from six CMIP5 models and used to evaluate changes in permafrost geotechnical characteristics between the decades of 2050–2059 and 2006–2015 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Country-specific infrastructure costs are used to estimate the value of infrastructure affected. The results show a 27% increase in infrastructure lifecycle replacement costs across the circumpolar permafrost regions. In addition, more than 14% of total fixed infrastructure assets are at risk of damages due to changes in specific environmental stressors, such as loss of permafrost bearing capacity and thaw subsidence due to ground ice melt. Regions of Northern Canada and Western Siberia are projected to be particularly affected and may require additional annual spending in the excess of 1% of annual GRP to support existing infrastructure into the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".