Recent trends in prostate cancer in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the most common type of cancer in Canadian men. Screening recommendations have changed substantially over the last 25 years. Since 2011 (United States) and 2014 (Canada), taskforce guidelines have recommended against screening using the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test in low-risk men of all ages. This work reports on trends in prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and stage at diagnosis in Canada from 1992 to 2015. DATA AND METHODS: Prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and stage at diagnosis were retrieved from Statistics Canada's Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. Joinpoint analysis was used to examine trends over time. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of prostate cancer peaked in 1993 and 2001, and declined thereafter. From 2011 to 2015, the ASIR declined by 9.3% per year. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased continuously from 1992 to 2015, but fell most rapidly (2.9% per year) after 2001. Data from two provinces show that, from 2005 to 2015, the rate of Stage I and Stage II cancers decreased by 3.2% per year, while the rate of Stage III and Stage IV cancers remained relatively stable. DISCUSSION: Incidence of prostate cancer has declined substantially in recent years. Most of the decline seems to be in localized cases (Stage I and Stage II). Changes in incidence have mirrored changes to PSA screening recommendations. Future work should continue to monitor trends over time at the national level, especially as they relate to screening recommendations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.017 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".