The Accuracy of Prevalent Vertebral Fracture Detection in Children Using Targeted Case-Finding Approaches
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Due to concerns about cumulative radiation exposure in the pediatric population, it is not standard practice to perform spine radiographs in most conditions that predispose to vertebral fracture (VF). In this study we examined the accuracy of two clinical predictors, back pain and lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS BMD), to derive four case-finding paradigms for detection of prevalent VF (PVF). Subjects were 400 children at risk for PVF (leukemia 186, rheumatic disorders 135, nephrotic syndrome 79). Back pain was assessed by patient report, LS BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and PVF were quantified on spine radiographs using the modified Genant semiquantitative method. Forty-four patients (11.0%) had PVF. Logistic regression analysis between LS BMD and PVF produced an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5 to 2.5) per reduction in Z-score unit, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.79), and an optimal BMD Z-score cutoff of -1.6. Case identification using either low BMD alone (Z-score < -1.6) or back pain alone gave similar results for sensitivity (55%, 52%, respectively), specificity (78%, 81%, respectively), positive predictive value (PPV; 24%, 25%, respectively), and negative predictive value (NPV; 93%, 93%, respectively). The paradigm using low BMD plus back pain produced lower sensitivity (32%), higher specificity (96%), higher PPV (47%), and similar NPV (92%). The approach using low BMD or back pain had the highest sensitivity (75%), lowest specificity (64%), lowest PPV (20%), and highest NPV (95%). All paradigms had increased sensitivities for higher fracture grades. Our results show that BMD and back pain history can be used to identify children with the highest risk of PVF so that radiography can be used judiciously. The specific paradigm to be applied will depend on the expected PVF rate and the clinical approach to the use of radiography. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.029 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".