Bibliographic record
Abstract
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKDespite six years of unconventional monetary policy by central banks in the industrial countries, global economic growth this year is expected to hold steady at last year's sluggish speed. At the end of last year, policy makers and global strategists were forecasting for 2014 economic growth in the United States to hit above 3% rates, leading the world to a strong recovery and job creation. According to monthly GDP estimates, the U.S. economy entered a declining path in December 2013, a month of normal weather conditions, and real GDP fell by 1% in the first quarter of 2014, which was blamed on a snowy winter.In the Euro Area, growth has been disappointing with readings in industrial production in the first three months of 2014 below last December's level. Preliminary first quarter of 2014 GDP numbers show overall growth of 0.8% annual rate with nil growth in France and declines in Italy and the Netherlands. Recent indicators for China point to a high probability of a further slowdown in its economic growth. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 230% in the non-financial sector, bubbling home prices, excess capacity and redirection of investment to unproductive sectors, China's economy slowed to 7.4% growth in the first quarter of 2014, below the official target of 7.5%.In this lethargic for industrial countries and decelerating for emerging economies environment, we expect on the average global growth to continue at a snail's pace, characterized by some pleasant country specific transitory high growth quarterly reports, which will be balanced by unpleasant slower or negative growth numbers later or in any other country around the globe. The underlying trend will remain the same as long as real after-tax labor incomes continue to stagnate. In addition, there are several geopolitical concerns regarding the relations between Russia and western countries aligned with Ukraine, unresolved ongoing conflicts in Syria and Libya, and possible forthcoming adverse situations in Iraq and Afghanistan from the departure of U.S. and NATO troops.The ECB is expected to cut rates in the summer, China will likely introduce economic stimulus to reach its growth targets, and U.S. unconventional monetary policy will be adjusting to avoid a new recession. In sum, worldwide GDP is forecast to grow 2.9% in 2014, the same as in 2013, and then to modestly accelerate to 3.3% during 2015-16. Led by higher food prices and rising wages, inflation rates are forecast to begin accelerating over the forecast horizon, especially in the non-European economic blocs.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce, which was conducted in the second quarter of 2014. About 1,200 executives from 121 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate fell in the second quarter and expectations for the second half of the year were clouded. The major findings of the second quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, second quarter of 2014, to be slightly below satisfactory levels, led by low levels of consumption expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the second quarter of 2014 to be better than in the second quarter of 2013. Most important, regarding the future, executives are optimistic, expecting economic conditions in the fourth quarter of 2014 to be above those prevailing in the second quarter of 2014.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be slightly above satisfactory levels and better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and slightly better than a year ago; they were a little optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be somewhat better in the second half of 2014. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".