Risk Stratification of Bethesda III Category Thyroid Nodules
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) carries a malignancy risk reaching up to 50%. Based on the reported malignancy rate in a given population, the clinical practice towards such a category varies. We hereby identify clinical parameters for risk stratification to aid in decision making for either surgical referral or a clinical follow-up. Our aim is to calculate the malignancy risk in Bethesda category III and to identify clinical parameters that guided both clinicians and patients at our institutions to reach a clinical decision. Methods: A retrospective review of patients with Bethesda category III thyroid nodules from the tertiary centers in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi during January 2011 through December 2015 was carried out. Malignancy risk in Bethesda category III nodules and repeat fine-needle aspiration (FNA) utility were calculated. Parameters guided referral to surgery were studied. Results: A total of 202 cases were included in the study. Of these, 101 cases underwent surgery initially following the first FNA, and 10 cases following repeat FNA. Histology confirmed malignancy in 41% of cases that went initially to surgery, and in 40% of cases that underwent a repeat FNA. Repeat FNA resulted in 17 (44.74%) cases being re-classified into benign category, 10 (26.3%) being AUS/FLUS category, six (15.7%) being both suspicious and malignant, and five (13.16%) being unsatisfactory. Repeating FNA resulted in a definitive diagnostic utility in 50% of the cases. Conclusions: The relatively high malignancy rate in our institutions, the suspicious radiographic features and the repeat FNA predictive value stratified Bethesda category III nodules for appropriate referrals to surgery. J Endocrinol Metab. 2019;9(6):180-185 doi: https://doi.org/10.14740/jem625
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".