Bibliographic record
Abstract
Balsam woolly adelgid (BWA), Adelges piceae(Ratzeburg), is a sap-sucking, exotic invasive insect that arrived in North America from central Europe around 1900. Since then, its range has expanded from New Brunswick, Canada to the southern Appalachian Mountains. It is a threat to all North American true-fir species, but populations can be controlled by cold continental winters. Adelgid feeding leaves noticeable traces on the wood tissue (“rotholz”) and causes a temporary positive radial growth response among affected trees. The purpose of this research was to determine dates of initial outbreaks, balsam fir radial growth change during outbreaks, and the relationship between cold winter temperatures and BWA outbreaks in the highlands of West Virginia. I used these two indicators on the wood tissue collected from tree cores from 14 balsam fir stands (Abies balsamea) and compared them to that of red spruce (Picea rubens) trees growing nearby. I also compared infestation dates with local climate records, to ascertain the relationships between infestations and winter air temperatures. I observed rotholz in 28% of the trees in all stands with the earliest evidence of occurrence at Upper Tract in 1952, four decades before BWA was first observed by the US-Forest Service at a Tucker County seed orchard. Using a host vs non-host model, I observed increases in growth caused by infestations particularly in 1988-1994 and 2000-2005. These periods are also periods of high rotholz occurrence. Periods of reduced infestation, as evidenced by normal or reduced growth and less rotholz, tend to occur following exceptionally cold winters. My results suggest that future monitoring of BWA should include tree core sampling for rotholz and growth increases in addition to exterior evaluation of trees. My results also suggest that as winters continue to warm, infestations may become more frequent and more severe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".