Magnetic resonance imaging texture predicts progression to dementia due to Alzheimer disease earlier than hippocampal volume
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Early identification of people at risk of imminent progression to dementia due to Alzheimer disease is crucial for timely intervention and treatment. We investigated whether the texture of MRI brain scans could predict the progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer disease earlier than volume. Methods: We constructed a development data set (121 people who were cognitively normal and 145 who had mild Alzheimer disease) and a validation data set (113 patients with stable MCI who did not progress to Alzheimer disease for 3 years; 40 with early MCI who progressed to Alzheimer disease after 12–36 months; and 41 with late MCI who progressed to Alzheimer disease within 12 months) from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We analyzed the texture of the hippocampus, precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex using a grey-level co-occurrence matrix. We constructed texture and volume indices from the development data set using logistic regression. Using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristics, we compared the accuracy of hippocampal volume, hippocampal texture and the composite texture of the hippocampus, precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex in predicting conversion from MCI to Alzheimer disease in the validation data set. Results: Compared with hippocampal volume, hippocampal texture (0.790 v. 0.739, p = 0.047) and composite texture (0.811 v. 0.739, p = 0.007) showed larger AUCs for conversion to Alzheimer disease from both early and late MCI. Hippocampal texture showed a marginally larger AUC than hippocampal volume in early MCI (0.795 v. 0.726, p = 0.060). Composite texture showed a larger AUC for conversion to Alzheimer disease than hippocampal volume in both early (0.817 v. 0.726, p = 0.027) and late MCI (0.805 v. 0.753, p = 0.019). Limitations: This study was limited by the absence of histological data, and the pathology reflected by the texture measures remains to be validated. Conclusion: Textures of the hippocampus, precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex predicted conversion from MCI to Alzheimer disease at an earlier time point and with higher accuracy than hippocampal volume.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".