Timing to temperature: Egg‐laying dates respond to temperature and are under stronger selection at northern latitudes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Global climate change produces spatially variable patterns of environmental change. This could put migratory species at risk as the synchrony between migration timing and suitable breeding conditions could become mismatched. For migratory birds, whether the timing of egg laying is a plastic trait that can vary in response to environmental change has been sparsely studied across regions and systems and thus remains poorly known. We investigated the effects of temperature variability and climate warming on the breeding phenology of purple martins ( Progne subis ), a long‐distance migratory songbird, using a 20‐yr data set comprised of 28,165 records of nest timing and fledgling success spanning the entire breeding range (25–54° N). We discovered that purple martins lay eggs earlier in warmer springs and fledge more young when they lay earlier. After controlling for spatial patterns in the data with Moran's eigenvector maps, we found that selection favored earlier breeding in most years, particularly at more northern latitudes. However, selection pressure for earlier breeding did not increase over the 20‐yr period, perhaps owing to high variability in temperature across years. Our results therefore demonstrate plasticity in the timing of egg laying in response to temperature variation and climate change over 20 yr across the range of this widely distributed, long‐distance migrant. Whether these plastic responses are common or sufficiently matched to climate change among other declining migratory songbird species should be further investigated.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".