Mortality among Patients with Giant Cell Arteritis: A Large-scale Population-based Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Studies regarding mortality among patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA) have yielded conflicting results. Thus in this large population-based study we aimed to examine whether GCA is associated with increased mortality, and if so, the effect of age at diagnosis and sex on the association. METHODS: We used the medical database of Clalit Health Services for this retrospective cohort study. Followup was from January 1, 2002, and continued until death or end of followup on September 1, 2018. Incident GCA patients were compared with age- and sex-matched controls. Estimated median survival times were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. HR for all-cause mortality were obtained by the Cox proportional hazard model, adjusted for sociodemographic variables and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: The study included 7294 patients with GCA and 33,688 controls. The mean age at start of followup was 72.1 ± 9.9 years with 69.2% females. Estimated median survival time was 13.1 years (95% CI 12.6-13.5) in patients with GCA compared with 14.4 years (95% CI 14.1-14.6) in controls (p < 0.001). The multivariate analysis demonstrated increased mortality risk in the first 2 years after diagnosis (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.25) and > 10 years after diagnosis (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.3). The mortality risk was higher in patients diagnosed at ≤ 70 years of age [HR 1.5 (95% CI 1.14-1.99) 0-2 yrs; HR 1.38 (95% CI 1.1-1.7) > 10 yrs]. CONCLUSION: Patients with GCA have a minor decrease in longterm survival compared to age- and sex-matched controls. The seen difference is due to excess mortality in the first 2 years, and > 10 years after diagnosis. Patients diagnosed ≤ 70 years of age are at greater risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".