Incidence Rates for Surgery in Crohn’s Disease Have Decreased: A Population-based Time-trend Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Many Crohn's disease (CD) patients will undergo surgery over the course of their life. It is thought that with the introduction of disease-modifying agents like anti-TNF therapy, there would be a population-level decrease in the need for surgery. This time-trend study aimed to assess the changes in surgical rates following the induction of anti-TNF therapy. METHODS: Adult CD patients who underwent abdominal surgery (identified by administrative coding) between January of 1996 and December of 2013 at 1 of the 4 Edmonton-area hospitals were included. Patient charts were manually reviewed to confirm diagnosis and gather demographic and disease-related data. Population-adjusted annual incidence rates for IBD surgery were calculated by dividing the number of surgeries by estimates for total population of CD patients in Edmonton. Time-trend analysis was conducted to identify change points, calculate annual percent change (APC), and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: A total of 1410 patients with Crohn's disease underwent surgery for their disease. The surgical rate decreased by 8.4% each year (95% CI, -9.6% to -7.3%). There was a 36.2% increase in the use of anti-TNF therapy per year (95% CI, 31.3% to 41.5%). Changes in modifiable risk factors for surgery were also seen, including the proportion of active smokers decreasing by 2.2% per year (95% CI, -3.7% to -0.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Although anti-TNF therapy seems to play a role, the decrease in surgical trends is likely multifactorial, owing to a decline in smoking trends, earlier diagnosis, earlier treatment, improved patient education, and changes in clinical practice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".