Postglacial migration across a large dispersal barrier outpaces regional expansion from glacial refugia: evidence from two conifers in the Pacific Northwest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Understanding how climate refugia and migration over great distances have facilitated species survival during periods of past climate change is crucial for evaluating contemporary threats to biodiversity. In addition to tracking a changing climate, extant species must face complex, anthropogenically fragmented landscapes. The dominant conifer species in the mesic temperate forests of the Pacific Northwest are split by the arid rain-shadow of the Cascade Range into coastal and interior distributions, with continued debate over the origins of the interior populations. If the Last Glacial Maximum extirpated populations in the interior then postglacial migration across the arid divide would have been necessary to create the current distribution, whereas interior refugial persistence could have locally repopulated the disjunction. These alternative scenarios have significant implications for the postglacial development of the Pacific Northwest mesic forests and the impact of dispersal barriers during periods of climate change. Here we use genotyping-by-sequencing (ddRADseq) and phylogeographical modeling to show that the postglacial expansion of both mountain hemlock and western redcedar consisted largely of long-distance spread inland in the direction of dominant winds, with limited expansion from an interior redcedar refugium. Our results for these two key mesic conifers, along with fossil pollen data, address the longstanding question on the development of the Pacific Northwest mesic forests and contrast with many recent studies emphasizing the role of cryptic refugia in colonizing modern species ranges. Statement of Significance Understanding whether habitat fragmentation hinders range shifts as species track a changing climate presents a pressing challenge for biologists. Species with disjunct distributions provide a natural laboratory for studying the effects of fragmentation during past periods of climate change. We find that dispersal across a 50-200-km inhospitable barrier characterized the expansion of two conifer species since the last ice age. The importance of migration, and minimal contribution of more local glacial refugia, contrasts with many recent studies emphasizing the role of microrefugia in populating modern species distributions. Our results address a longstanding question on the development of the disjunct mesic conifer forests of the Pacific Northwest and offer new insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of refugial populations and postglacial vegetation development previously unresolved despite decades of paleoecological studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".