Return of the founder Chikungunya virus to its place of introduction into Brazil is revealed by genomic characterization of exanthematic disease cases
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Between June 2017 and August 2018, several municipalities located in Bahia state (Brazil) reported a large increase in the number of patients presenting with febrile illness similar to that of arboviral infections. Using a combination of portable whole genome sequencing, molecular clock and epidemiological analyses, we revealed the return of the CHIKV-ECSA genotype into Bahia. Our results show local persistence of lineages in some municipalities and the re-introduction of new epidemiological strains from different Brazilian regions, highlighting a complex dynamic of transmission between epidemic seasons and sampled locations. Estimated climate-driven transmission potential of CHIKV remained at similar levels throughout the years, such that large reductions in the total number of confirmed cases suggests a slow, but gradual accumulation of herd-immunity over the 4 years of the epidemic in Bahia after its introduction in 2014. Bahia remains a reservoir of the genetic diversity of CHIKV in the Americas, and genomic surveillance strategies are essential to assist in monitoring and understanding arboviral transmission and persistence both locally and over large distances.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".