Linking Mountain Glacier Retreat and Hydrological Changes in Southwestern Yukon
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This study aims to isolate and quantify the role of shrinking glaciers in recent hydrological changes in eight watersheds in the southwestern Yukon (Canada) by using an original dual approach that consists of (i) watershed hydrological regime identification, followed by a trend analysis of discharge time series, and (ii) a model‐based peak water (PW) analysis using glacier cover change measurements. A distinction between hydrological regimes is a necessary add‐up to commonly used trend attribution methods as the lake runoff regime shares common characteristics with the glacier regime. Results show a link between shrinking glaciers and hydrological changes in the region, but the link is complex, and glacier retreat does not explain all the observed changes. Model outputs show that the two watersheds with a glacierized area exceeding 30% and one watershed with 2.9% glacierized area have not reached PW, whereas a 9.2% glacierized watershed and another watershed with 2.1% glacierized area have already passed it. These results suggest that glacierized area alone cannot explain short‐term changes related to watershed current position in terms of PW, and the rate of glacier retreat must be considered. By contrast, the actual rate of glacier retreat does not influence long‐term changes, such as the magnitude of PW and of the consequent drop in discharge. Once glaciers will have retreated to a point close to extinction, declines in summer discharge from 10% to 70% and proportional to the actual glacier cover are anticipated at watersheds that are currently more than 9% glacierized.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".