Modeling the dynamics of a Late Triassic vertebrate extinction: The Adamanian/Revueltian faunal turnover, Petrified Forest National Park, Arizona, USA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The coincidence of a diverse vertebrate assemblage with a high-precision geochronology and lithostratigraphy in Petrified Forest National Park (Arizona, USA) allows Bayesian quantification of the dynamics of a Late Triassic vertebrate extinction and replacement, the Adamanian/Revueltian (A/R) faunal turnover. This approach uniquely identifies probabilities for the tempo of the replacement of the Adamanian assemblage by that of the Revueltian, precisely tracking the turnover. While the method does not designate the moment of extinction, there is a negligible probability that all Adamanian extinctions, as well as all Revueltian originations, are synchronous. A protracted A/R turnover is incompatible with the geologically instantaneous Manicouagan impact (215.4 ± 0.20 Ma; Québec, Canada) as a dominant causal mechanism. This analytical framework constitutes a flexible means of reconstructing biotic turnover in a variety of deep time contexts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".