Predicting Carbon Accumulation in Temperate Forests of Ontario, Canada Using a LiDAR-Initialized Growth-and-Yield Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate warming has led to an urgent need for improved estimates of carbon accumulation in uneven-aged, mixed temperate forests, where high uncertainty remains. We investigated the feasibility of using LiDAR-derived forest attributes to initialize a growth and yield (G&Y) model in complex stands at the Petawawa Research Forest (PRF) in eastern Ontario, Canada; i.e., can G&Y models based on LiDAR provide accurate predictions of aboveground carbon accumulation in complex forests compared to traditional inventory-based estimates? Applying a local G&Y model, we forecasted aboveground carbon stock (tons/ha) and accumulation (tons/ha/yr) using recurring plot measurements from 2012–2016, FVS1. We applied statistical predictors derived from LiDAR to predict stem density (SD), stem diameter distribution (SDD), and basal area distribution (BA_dist). These data, along with measured species abundance, were used to initialize a second model (FVS2). A third model was tested using LiDAR-initialized tree lists and photo-interpreted estimates of species abundance (i.e., FVS3). The carbon stock projections for 2016 from the inventory-based G&Y model) were equivalent to validation carbon stocks measured in 2016 at all size-class levels (p < 0.05), while LiDAR-based G&Y models were not. None of the models were equivalent to validation data for accumulation (p > 0.05). At the plot level, LiDAR-based predictions of carbon accumulation over a nine-year period did not differ when using either inventory or photo-interpreted species (p < 0.05). Using a constant mortality rate, we also found statistical equivalency of inventory and photo-interpreted accumulation models for all size classes ≥17 cm. These results suggest that more precise information is needed on tree characteristics than we could derive from LiDAR, but that plot-level species information is not as critical for predictions of carbon accumulation in mixed-species forests. Further work is needed on the use of LiDAR to quantify stand properties before this technique can be used to replace recurring plot measurements to quantify carbon accumulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".