Consequences of Lack of Parameterization Invariance of Non-informative Bayesian Analysis for Wildlife Management: Survival of San Joaquin Kit Fox and Declines in Amphibian Populations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Computational convenience has led to widespread use of Bayesian inference with vague or flat priors to analyze statistical models in ecology. Vague priors are claimed to be objective and to `let the data speak'. However, statisticians have long disputed these claims and have criticized the use of vague priors from philosophical to computational to pragmatic reasons. One of the major criticisms is that the inferences based on non-informative priors are generally dependent on the parameterization of the models. Ecologists, unfortunately, often dismiss such criticisms as having no practical implications. One argument is that for large sample sizes, the priors do not matter. The problem with this argument is that, in practice, one does not know whether or not the observed sample size is sufficiently large for the effect of the prior to vanish. It intricately depends on the complexity of the model and the strength of the prior. We study the consequences of parameterization dependence of the non-informative Bayesian analysis in the context of population viability analysis and occupancy models and at the commonly obtained sample sizes. We show that they can have significant impact on the analysis, in particular on prediction, and can lead to strikingly different managerial decisions. In general terms, the consequences are: (1) All subjective Bayesian inferences can be masqueraded as objective (flat prior) Bayesian inferences, (2) Induced priors on functions of parameters are not flat, thus leading to cryptic biases in scientific inferences, (3) Unrealistic independent priors for multiparameter models lead to unrealistic priors on induced parameters, (4) Bayesian prediction intervals may not have correct coverage, thus leading to errors in decision making, (5) Reparameterization to facilitate MCMC convergence may influence scientific inference. Given the wide spread applicability of the hierarchical models and uncritical use of non-informative Bayesian analysis in ecology, researchers should be cautious about using vague priors as a default choice in practical situations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".