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Record W3001169579 · doi:10.3138/cjccj.2018-0049

More Canadian Police Means Less Crime

2019· article· en· W3001169579 on OpenAlexvenueaboutno aff
Simon Demers

Bibliographic record

VenueCanadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice/La Revue canadienne de criminologie et de justice pénale · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicCrime Patterns and Interventions
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsProperty crimeOfficerStaffingJurisdictionViolent crimeCriminologyLaw enforcementPopulationDemographic economicsBusinessPolitical scienceEconomicsLawSociologyDemography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

New empirical insights into Canadian policing are derived from publicly available panel data collected by Statistics Canada between 1998 and 2017 across almost 700 Canadian municipal police jurisdictions. Canadian police jurisdictions that hire more officers tend to experience less crime overall, including less property crime specifically. Each additional Canadian police officer correlates with slightly fewer homicides and 13.3 fewer reported property crimes on average, including 2.9 fewer burglaries and 3.7 fewer stolen vehicles annually. The results cannot be explained away by time-invariant jurisdiction-specific factors, population growth, or other time trends common to all jurisdictions. In elasticity terms, a 1% increase in Canadian police staffing is associated empirically with reductions of 0.93% in homicides, 0.44% in property crimes, 0.63% in burglaries, and 1.37% in vehicle thefts. Purely in terms of crime reduction and reduced victimization across these crime types, it is estimated that the typical Canadian police officer has the potential to generate a marginal benefit to society worth more than $114,000 annually. Taking into account unreported property crime would increase the marginal benefit to society up to $198,000. This new evidence confirms that public investments into local policing can contribute to the reduction of crime and can yield social benefits that exceed their costs.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.035
Threshold uncertainty score0.254

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0040.009
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0150.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.127
GPT teacher head0.353
Teacher spread0.226 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2019
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueCanadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice/La Revue canadienne de criminologie et de justice pénaleSame topicCrime Patterns and InterventionsFrench-language works237,207