Quantification of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery Due to Anthropogenic Halogens
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Human release of CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODS) has led to a slow, steady erosion of the thickness of the global ozone layer over the past several decades. The ozone layer has begun to recover due to actions taken under the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a decrease in the atmospheric abundance of ozone depleting substances. Yet, unreported emissions of CFC-11 have led to a slower than expected decline, and there has been a rise in the atmospheric abundance of chlorinated very short lived (VSL) compounds not regulated under the Montreal Protocol. In this presentation, we examine time series of ozone and halogens from a variety of observational platforms to quantify the attribution of the change in stratospheric ozone that is due to halogens. Our focus is on the extra-polar region: i.e., the state of the ozone layer between 55S and 55N where the vast majority of the world’s population resides. We will quantify the effect of continued release of CFC-11 and the presence of chlorinated VSL species on the recovery of the ozone layer. Additionally, we will use atmospheric observations to evaluate several proposed formulations for defining the quantity known as “Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine” (EESC) and assess the impact of these formulations on the projected recovery of the ozone layer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".