Identifying new X-ray binary candidates in M31 using random forest classification
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Identifying X-ray binary (XRB) candidates in nearby galaxies requires distinguishing them from possible contaminants including foreground stars and background active galactic nuclei. This work investigates the use of supervised machine learning algorithms to identify high-probability XRB candidates. Using a catalogue of 943 Chandra X-ray sources in the Andromeda galaxy, we trained and tested several classification algorithms using the X-ray properties of 163 sources with previously known types. Amongst the algorithms tested, we find that random forest classifiers give the best performance and work better in a binary classification (XRB/non-XRB) context compared to the use of multiple classes. Evaluating our method by comparing with classifications from visible-light and hard X-ray observations as part of the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury, we find compatibility at the 90 per cent level, although we caution that the number of source in common is rather small. The estimated probability that an object is an XRB agrees well between the random forest binary and multiclass approaches and we find that the classifications with the highest confidence are in the XRB class. The most discriminating X-ray bands for classification are the 1.7–2.8, 0.5–1.0, 2.0–4.0, and 2.0–7.0 keV photon flux ratios. Of the 780 unclassified sources in the Andromeda catalogue, we identify 16 new high-probability XRB candidates and tabulate their properties for follow-up.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".